Constellations, Launch, New Space and more…
SpaceX’s COTS Milestone Progress, Payments and Delays


SpaceX has “experienced lengthy delays in completing key milestones” in its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft programs over the past two years, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

The key findings of the report, which was presented to a House committee last week, include:

  • SpaceX has completed 18 of 22 original milestones to date, including two Falcon 9 launches and the initial demonstration flight of the Dragon capsule;
  • NASA has paid SpaceX $298 million out of $396 million allocated for meeting 18 original milestones and seven additional risk reduction milestones added to the program last year;
  • The company is running about two years behind schedule on the second and third Dragon demonstration flights, which are required before SpaceX can delivery cargo on a commercial basis to the International Space Station;
  • The schedule could be compressed if NASA allows SpaceX to combine the second and third Dragon demonstration flights;
  • Both SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation, which is developing a similar cargo system, are working on “aggressive schedules” that are likely to slip further;
  • NASA has been taking appropriate steps to reduce the impact of delays on ISS operations.

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  • June 1, 2011
Shuttle ‘STORRMs’ Space Station in Successful Rendezvous Test

LOCKHEED MARTIN PR — DENVER  — In an unprecedented on-orbit maneuver, Commander Mark Kelly completed the first ever Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV)-like approach to the International Space Station at 3:24 a.m. CDT today as part of the Sensor Test for Orion Relative Navigation Risk Mitigation (STORRM). The orbital rendezvous verified the successful operation of the MPCV’s next generation docking sensor, which NASA has identified as a critical technology needed for future space exploration missions.

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  • June 1, 2011
Sea Launch Resumes Zenit Hardware Shipments

BERN, Switzerland, May 31, 2011 – Sea Launch has resumed shipments of Zenit-3SL hardware in preparation for its return to launch operations in the third quarter of 2011. The two-stage Zenit-2S booster, manufactured by PO Yuzhmash of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine and the Block-DM-SL manufactured by OAO Rocket and Space Corporation Energia of Moscow, Russian Federation departed the Port of Oktyabrsky on May 31, 2011 for transit to Sea Launch Home Port facilities in Long Beach, California where launch vehicle integration and combined operations take place.

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  • June 1, 2011
Starfighters to Launch Suborbital Payloads From Cape Canaveral

Starfighters plans to use its growing fleet of F-104 fighter jets to launch payloads on suborbital flights from its base at the Kennedy Space Center. Under the plan, the Mach 2 jet would fly to an altitude of 60,000 feet and then fire off a 19-foot, 900-pound rocket with a payload attached, according to a NASA press release.

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  • May 31, 2011
Documents: Google Lunar X Prize Master Team Agreement

Here are PDF versions of the two agreements currently governing the Google Lunar X Prize and proposed revisions in the Master Team Agreement: Google Lunar X Prize Master Team Agreement Version 3.0 (in force) Google Lunar X Prize Risk Management Guidelines (in force) Google Lunar X Prize Master Team Agreement 3.2 (proposed with changes indicated from Version 3.0) (Note: Click on the image on the page that appears to get […]

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  • May 31, 2011
NASA Analysis: Falcon 9 Much Cheaper Than Traditional Approach
SpaceX's Falcon 9 on the pad at Cape Canaveral. (Credit: Chris Thompson/SpaceX)

SpaceX's Falcon 9 on the pad at Cape Canaveral. (Credit: Chris Thompson/SpaceX)

A NASA analysis shows that it cost significantly less for SpaceX to develop the Falcon 9 using the COTS private-partnership approach than it would have under NASA’s traditional approach to contracting.

Under methodology #1, the cost model predicted that the Falcon 9 would cost $4.0 billion based on a traditional approach. Under methodology #2, NAFCOM predicted $1.7 billion when the inputs were adjusted to a more commercial development approach. Thus, the predicted the cost to develop the Falcon 9 if done by NASA would have been between $1.7 billion and $4.0 billion.

SpaceX has publicly indicated that the development cost for Falcon 9 launch vehicle was approximately $300 million. Additionally, approximately $90 million was spent developing the Falcon 1 launch vehicle which did contribute to some extent to the Falcon 9, for a total of $390 million. NASA has verified these costs.

The conclusion is included in Appendix B of the recently released Commercial Market Assessment for Crew and Cargo Systems report. Read the full appendix after the break.

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  • May 31, 2011
This Week on The Space Show

The Space Show schedule for this week… Monday, May 30, 2011, 2-3:30 PM PDT. We welcome Marimikel Charrier to the program to discuss the upcoming New Space Conference July 28-31 in Mountain View, CA. Tuesday, May 31, 2011, 2-3:30 PM PDT. We welcome back Dr. Tom Matula to discuss moving space commerce beyond NASA into the future. Dr. Matula is a business school professor with specialties in marketing and finance. […]

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  • May 30, 2011
Copenhagen Suborbitals Aims to Launch on Wednesday

Copenhagen Suborbitals is aiming for a Wednesday, June 1 unmanned test flight for its suborbital space tourism vehicle. The launch window extends from June 1-5. The rocket will be launched from a steel catamaran at sea. The company’s goal is to launch tourists on suborbital flights in a single-seat capsule to altitudes above 100 kilometers (62.5 miles). No launch time has been announced, so look for updates on the group’s […]

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  • May 30, 2011
House Hearing Spotlights Concerns About NASA Commercial Cargo Program

The House held a hearing on NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program last week. The majority Republicans and minority Democrats both expressed concerns about the schedule and reliability of cargo delivery to the International Space Station by SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation set to begin within the next year. Republicans seem a bit more skeptical about the effort, however, questioning market viability and other issues.

Press releases from both parties describing the hearing and their concerns follow after the break.

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  • May 30, 2011
Analyst Rips SpaceX on Price Increases, Schedule Delays

Artists conception of SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft in orbit

Loren Thompson has a piece on Forbes.com in which he tries to tear down what he views as myths and falsehoods concerning Elon Musk and SpaceX. Among other things, the Lexington Institute chief operating officer doesn’t believe Musk’s numbers:

The easiest ways to track prices in the launch services market are to follow cost per launch and cost per pound lifted into orbit — metrics that may diverge considerably depending on the intended payload size and orbital plane. Measured either way, SpaceX tends to over-promise when it announces a new vehicle and then raise prices later. For example, the price of a Falcon 1 launch was initially stated at about $6 million in 2003-2004, but then gradually rose to about $11 million in 2010-2011. The price of a Falcon 9 launch rose from $35 million prior to 2008 to $60 million today. The lower prices were quoted before the two vehicles had actually been launched, so the later prices presumably reflect complications encountered in development — a key problem when implementing any new business strategy. Similarly, the per-pound cost of launching payloads into orbit on either vehicle has risen over 100 percent since initial estimates were made by the company.

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  • May 29, 2011
Eastern Shore Looks for Space Activities to Help Boost Tourism

Pad OA at Wallops Island. (Credit: Orbital Sciences Corporation)

Public officials and business leaders in Virginia’s Eastern Shore are looking for increased space activities on Wallops Island to help boost tourism throughout the region. The enthusiasm was on display at a hearing last week concerning a plan by Accomack County to raise taxes on the lodging industry:

Chincoteague business owner Steve Potts said of recent local tourism developments including the prospect of space tourism, “The opportunities we have before us are probably the most exciting thing since Misty hit the beach.”
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  • May 29, 2011