Sanctions Threaten to Derail Russian Satellite Industry
The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe over the invasion of Ukraine could be a second serious blow to the Russian satellite manufacturing industry, Anatoly Zak writes at Russianspaceweb.com.
The first blow occurred after the United States imposed a ban on the export of satellite technology following the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014. Russian manufacturers, who were heavily reliant on Western technology, took a two-pronged approach: increase cooperation with Europe, and attempt to build up a domestic capability for the components they previously bought from the West.
Domestic efforts have been slow, however, and now imports from Europe have dried up due to sanctions. Zak writes:
But in 2022, the Russian communications satellite projects had hit a real wall, along with the rest of the Russian economy, after Putin’s new invasion of Ukraine. The overwhelmingly wide sanctions against the Kremlin left practically no chance for Russia to complete any of its communications satellites in the development pipeline at the time due to their dependency on Western payloads.
Conceivably, Russia could turn to China for necessary components or/and Moscow could try again developing necessary competencies inside the country, but given little signs of progress on both of those fronts in the past, it could probably take years if not decades before all the technological gaps could be closed and it would be even more difficult to do under much harsher economic conditions and export controls. It is also a question whether China would be interested in boosting strategically important industries in Russia with potential military implications or whether it would want to challenge the Western sanctions regime by putting at risk its far more important trade relations with the United States.
China’s decision on how much to help Vladimir Putin ameliorate the sanctions will go a long way to determining the future of Russia.
39 responses to “Sanctions Threaten to Derail Russian Satellite Industry”
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I suspect the PRC is beginning to see Russia as a sort of impulsive criminally-inclined teenage relative. Specifically, one of those who can’t even make a living at crime but keeps coming around looking for money and help when capers go sour and when being pursued by the law. One of those, also, who is oblivious to the consequences for his potential benefactors of becoming accessories after the fact in his clumsy depredations. I think the PRC will involve itself with post-Ukraine invasion Russia only in ways that directly benefit the PRC. That will not include pulling any Russian military chestnuts out of the fire or materially assisting Russia’s space industry.
they see the Russians as someone who has spoiled their plans for Taiwan my theory (which is going to happen anyway if we win) is just let the entire thing fall down. ok lose nukes but we will deal with that latter
It’s more likely that they view events in Russia as an opportunity to restore the historic Chinese empire, especially as they have not forgotten that large areas of Siberia once belong to China, areas that Russia stole in 1860 when China was weak. Russia also has resources that China needs for its industrial needs.
So I expect China is going to continue the long game they are playing of stringing Russia along while it finds puppets that it could use to take over the Russian government after Putin is out of the way. Then China will be able to welcome the barbarians in Russia as restored “communists” and partners in the battle against the evil West while reversing the Russian land grab.
https://www.nytimes.com/roo…
Why China Will Reclaim Siberia
Frank Jacobs, the author of “Strange Maps: An Atlas of Cartographic Curiosities,” blogs at Big Think.
Updated January 13, 2015, 11:54 AM
https://www.bbc.com/news/wo…
Why Chinese farmers have crossed border into Russia’s Far East
By Andrei Zakharov & Anastasia Napalkova
BBC Russian Service
Published 1 November 2019
sorry for the late reply Tom its been a busy day.
interesting comments
Its unclear to me how the Ukraine thing ends yet. but it will be either the collapse of the Russian government/economy or our own status as a super power…and then we will see either how the Chinese pick up the pieces or in the case we win…make the next move.
the next few months will be fascinating
I expect it will be over within a couple of weeks since both sides recognize its a stalemate. Putin is now anxious to start a Stalin style purging of his military for failing him while President Zelensky has recognized that NATO fears Russia too much to give Ukraine more than token support. So a deal will be made where Ukraine agrees to not join NATO, allows Russia to keep Crimea and the breakaway region in return for Russian troops withdrawing while both NATO and Russia will acknowledge that Ukraine will be a buffer state between them. If we are lucky the Russian military will react to the coming military leadership purge by purging Putin first. ?
https://www.bbc.com/news/wo…
Ukraine: Putin will search for a way to save face
By John Simpson
World Affairs editor
Published 16 March 2022
“For President Putin, all that counts now is that he can declare victory. No matter that everyone in his entire administration will understand that Russia has been given a bloody nose in this unnecessary invasion. No matter that the 20% or so of Russians who understand what’s really going on in the world will know that Putin has bet the house on a fantasy of his own devising, and lost.”
https://apnews.com/article/…
Ukraine sees room for compromise, as 20,000 escape Mariupol
By ANDREA ROSA
“In a statement that seemed to signal potential grounds for agreement with Moscow, Zelenskyy told European leaders gathered in London that he realizes NATO has no intention of accepting Ukraine.
“We have heard for many years about the open doors, but we also heard that we can’t enter those doors,” he said. “This is the truth, and we have simply to accept it as it is.”
you are as wrong there as you were about Russian troops not going into combat
Putin does not recognize the incursion as a mistake. He MIGHT recognize it as an error based on the sad performance of his military, but he thinks he can fix that. I’ve read Simpsons article and he has no idea about Putin, does not understand his mine frame or his thought process
I know Putin better than Simpson does. Simpson is a light weight
this entire thing is about to enter the Aleppo phase. and there is zero chance of Putin being purged by his military at least right now
you are just wrong. RGO
Putin misjudged Biden’s reaction to his demands based on his performance in Afghanistan. When Biden wouldn’t cut a deal Putin had to invade or lose creditably, as I stated would happen if Biden didn’t make a deal. But the Russian military was not ready thinking it wouldn’t happen, there would be a deal, and hence the stalemate. The Russian military forces are seeing major loses without any of the major objectives being reached and as a result Putin is looking at bringing in mercenaries from Syria which is unprecedented.
https://www.cbsnews.com/new…
Over 40,000 Syrians reportedly register to fight for Russia in Ukraine
By Haley Ott
March 14, 2022 / 3:51 PM/ CBS News
Putin misjudged Biden’s reaction to his demands based on his performance in Afghanistan. When Biden wouldn’t cut a deal Putin had to invade or lose creditably”
absurd. Putin misjudged NATO’s resolve after seeing 4 years of orange man tear the organization apart. He listened to trump and carlson over here telling his propaganda “there was a lot of love ” in Putin…according to trump
He found out trump was no longer running politics in this country
there is no deal for Biden to cut. Ukraine is a soverign power. we dont cut deals for other soverign powers. got it?
Trump didn’t “tear NATO apart,” he whipped it into something resembling shape. Just in time, too. Trump is no longer running policy in this country. But, politically, he’s far more significant than Joe Biden. And the days of Trump running policy again look increasingly likely to return.
you are about to watch this thing take on a level of violence unprecedented …and we are warming up to get into it. the US will have 150K troops on the continent shortly
Yes, the U.S. is on the way to returning to Cold War levels of deployment in Europe while nations like Germany and France, which neglected their military, are building up their forces again.
its a different world. the world created by trickle down economics and the fall of the USSR has failed. so its collapsing. we will be lucky to restart our economy as something like an internal manufacture base…but maybe middle out will work
there were a lot of mistakes made
the first is that we assumed that because the Russians, Chinese and to some extent the rich Arabs acted like us, dressed like us (OK exception for House of Saud) had airlines like us etc…that we were alike and we could all “work things out” we were wrong (or most of us were
second a nation that does not have an industrial base is not a superpower and cannot be. we have lost our middle class to trickle down and stupid service jobs that really have no value…
third we listened to the rich who explained how they were so smart and did such wonderful things that we should treat them special
the economics of it were collapsing anyway but Putin ripped the skin off
hopefully we can make our way through this. and in the mix the right wing and Putin will go away. this is our WW2
You haven’t a clue do you? Russia’s military is failing and failing big with reports that Russia is in the process of stripping its units in the Pacific and other fronts to replace its losses which may be as high as 10 percent of the attacking forces. The young and talented are fleeing Russia as fast as they are able to find transport out with many hoping to come to America. And you are claiming that somehow the United States is the weak nation, not Russia, that America’s economy is in ruins, that we need to go to some type of planned economy to become a super power again…
Over control is part of the problem with planned economy. The more planning and controls, the less freedom to innovate and move forward. This country has many problems that do need to be addressed. Central planning is often the opposite of addressing those problems. Not always, but often.
Next time you talk to someone that thinks they have a good idea, ask them about setting up production in this country. The restrictions and regulations mean that many ideas are not acted on. Industry can be improved rapidly in a society that can trust the government to not screw it up. That screw it up is often when protecting an existing business at the expense of creating new ones.
A well understood set of regulations that was not a lawyers banquet would have avoided much of the Boca Chica kerfuffle. Yes or no would have been solid before start with no meaning that the development would have been at Matagorda, the Cape, or another location without uncertainties.
Apologies for the rant. Planning too often means protectionism and stagnation. Currently trying to get house plans for my wife and I. We are required to have engineered blueprints in order to submit for permit. Engineers are so busy making bank cutting and pasting stuff that has been code for decades that doing actual engineering has taken a back seat. Already lost several months on a simple 1-1 (620 sq/ft 6/12 pitch roof) floor plan. Sticking point is that I am in the concrete business and designed it as a concrete building, roof and all rated for F5 tornado. Getting it official by a licensed structural engineer is the hold up. Even other than my decades old engineering (no degree) and decades of experience, there are load and span tables all over the internet. We hope to be able to sell tornado resistant additions after our house completion. We can’t get a product if we can’t get people to do their job, and we can’t get them to do their job when it is so lucrative when cut and paste is protected by regulation.
. And you are claiming that somehow the United States is the weak nation,
the weakest point of your rant. Musk understood what was needed, like most of the rich he just thought he could dodge it…and it wasnt about saving money it was just about being in control. the government seemed to think otherwise as it works for the people
at least now that orange man is gone 🙂
Musk does understand what’s needed. Among other things, that the American elite need to respect production again. Musk is exceptional in many ways but he is also a throwback to old-school industrialists like Ford and Kaiser.
The government works for the government. The people are fuel for the machine.
The orange man isn’t gone, he’s just working up to the next round.
. And you are claiming that somehow the United States is the weak nation,”:
I am not even sure where I even implied that. I dont respond to things I did not say
However…what I said was that GOP economics weakened the country. and has gone a long way to destroying the middle class. that is not disputable
there is no evidence that russia is moving units from the other side of the country. losses are high with them but they would not move units when they are having trouble logistic”ing” the units they have. and really they have no need to if they can mobilize the combat power that they have
Problem is that they are having a difficult time organizing that power
I am saying specifically that the last 30 year experiment in world wide crony capitalism has failed. you cannot have democracy nor capitalism among people who do not share the values of the west and that includes us. that is why we have to lose trickle down, declare it a bad dream and go back to middle out
I think that is working now.
you would do better debating the actual points I made. good morning
Your points are simply a rehash of the typical Anti-Free market talking points that have nothing to do the war in Ukraine or President Biden’s failure in Afghanistan, unless you are claiming that is why the Russian Army is failing in the invasion.
So there is nothing that is worth responding to. BTW, I assume that your post will be given credit by Boeing for your required daily bashing of Elon Musk.?
We lost in Afland, leaving was a good idea. folks like you want to stay there but are unwilling to even help pay for it with increased taxes
trickle down was not the free market, it was the government directly funneling cash to the head of industry paid for by deficit spending and taxes on middle income earners
I can only imagine why you will not defend that
Musk? did I mention him ? if so it was just as a rich guy who wants everything from the government and to have no responsibility for the success of the country. the company I work for really does not care what I say on social media as long as I make clear to people like you who insist on bringing that employment up…that I do not speak on media for the company 🙂 FLy safe
Again, folks like me… You just love trying to divide the nation with accusations don’t you or is that how you address everyone who voted for President Biden instead of Senator Sanders?
I thought we should have been out of Afghanistan a decade ago after we got Ben Laden. And again you prove that you know little about how national economics work, but than that is to be expected from someone who claims to have worked for Senator Sanders during the election.
you are misstating a few things. I volunteered for the Sanders campaign. I never was on paid staff. it would have been impossible for me to have done that in 16 or 20 as I was fully committed at Turkish airlines and could not have with family obligations taken a pay cut. I did have substantial responsibilities as an oveseas volunteer in both data analyzation and worked on policy formation. but was never paid. I did contribute to both campaigns and darn proud of it
its Bin Laden which means son of Ladin. that is not a unqiue designation Ladin had a lot of sons and daughters. one of the later is a Captain for a major European airline. I trained her. We are good friends 🙂
I know how economics work. I make a lot of money 🙂 Fly safe
the middle class in terms of economics was better off before trickle down or are you claiming otherwise?
Actually the Data shows that is not accurate, as I have posted links to your before. And exactly what has that to do with the Ukraine war?
Depending on which of his narratives you follow, it means that he is one of the rich people that are as clueless on the middle class incomes as on the Ukraine situation. Very similar in that the middle class has been improving in prosperity for decades and the Ukraine conflict is equally opaque to him.
Living as I do with people in the middle to lower half of income distribution, I really wouldn’t like to regress to decades back. One can always find problems, but one that is looking can also find solutions, unless prevented from acting on them.
“Trickle-down” is not a thing, it’s a epithet. What ruined the middle class was not the machinations of the nefarious rich so much as the tumorous growth of the administrative state since the 60s.
Obama did his best to hobble and diminish the U.S., including accelerate the off-shoring of jobs held by the non-college educated. But the U.S. came roaring back under Trump. It can again – and will have to after the hash Joe Biden has made of things in barely over a year.
The rich are, indeed, partly to blame – specifically the Democrats among them who play with money and build cyber-enterprises dominated by all those other “stupid service jobs” but find actually making things passe.
Along with the urban hipsters, the leftist political class were the most eager to tell the rest of us how smart they were and how dumb we are. Truth is, the dumbest people in public life are on the left – AOC, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Eric Swalwell, Maxine Waters, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Peter DeFazio – the list runs on and on.
Let us indeed hope Putin goes away. But the problems of the U.S. are almost entirely the doing of its left. They need to go away.
The violence thing is far from inevitable. To grind cities to powder one needs a lot of rockets and shells and things to fire them from. Russia is rapidly running out of both.
It’s not so much a stalemate as an unstable equilibrium that is likely to be short-lived. Ukraine grows militarily stronger as Russia grows militarily more depleted. A week or two hence, the Russians may well be in full reverse gear.
U.S. status as a superpower is not at issue. U.S. resolve would definitely be at issue, though, if Ukraine falls when it might have been saved by a more prompt and expansive program of U.S.-led “Lend-Lease.” The PRC would definitely exploit that.
They have the manpower.
Imagine if Ukraine had them for a next door neighbor. It would have been over with by nightfall.
The sea is Taiwan’s only friend.
The sea is a considerable friend to Taiwan, but hardly its only one. The sea also supports the naval forces of other friends, such as Japan, India and the U.S.
Picking off Siberia as a target of opportunity should Putin fall soon would be another reason to delay any Taiwanese adventure.
Both Russia and the PRC are doomed to “fall down,” but I’m not sure which of them you meant that phrase to apply to. I used to figure the PRC would go first with a brittle fracture in the next couple of decades and Russia would just slowly fade to black. Now, I think Russia’s fate may be brittle fracture as well and quite soon. And there is considerable evidence accumulating that the PRC’s brittle fracture may happen a lot sooner than I expected even a few months ago. Interesting times.
I also agree that Russia’s premature military ejaculation into Ukraine is not a plus for any PRC plans anent “recovering” Taiwan.
But I think there are even more minuses for that plan located within China itself. Multiple sectors of the PRC economy are melting down, led by real estate, housing and construction. There is also the upcoming People’s Congress in the fall which will decide whether Xi gets a third term as Top Guy.
The increasingly crummy PRC economy may provide just enough leverage for Xi’s enemies to oust him. So, if Xi doesn’t move on Taiwan in the next six months, he may well lose any future chance to do so to some successor.
Said successor, in turn, will need to consolidate power before embarking on any Taiwan adventure. That, in turn, may take long enough – or even fail – for Taiwan to squeak by until the weak, addled and Beijing-beholden Biden is gone.
Agreed. China’s people have always struck me as much more disciplined.
“economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe over the invasion of Ukraine could be a second serious blow to the Russian satellite manufacturing industry”
Good
And Elon Musk has a lot of broomsticks to launch those satellites.
whats going to be interesting is to see how the basic economy of the country (Russia) which is basically a false one …manages to hold up after a pretty solid disconnect from western money
Not well, I’m thinking. That tends to be the case with economies based on theft.
As Russia retreats back into Stalinism, the satellite industries and Roscosmos are going to get folded back into the military anyway.