Blue Origin Tests New Glenn’s 7 Meter Fairing
13 responses to “Blue Origin Tests New Glenn’s 7 Meter Fairing”
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they are probably further along then most imagine. the BE4 probably is as well
No doubt, but by how much is really the question. However, as was pointed out elsewhere, the prime recipient of the BE-4 engines is ULA for Vulcan. Propellant tanks, landing gear, thrust structures, the interstage structure, fairings, etc. are not the real mover here, launch pad work, or Jacklyn, it is having enough BE-4s.
I think that problem is going to be fixed this summer. you are correct the engine is the key
I suspect the real battle between Bezos and Musk is the engine.
Blue’s track record to-date suggests it is further behind than at least you imagine. I didn’t want to use the word “most” there because I think most now have a properly skeptical view of Blue.
I have been associated with a lot of startup airlines and Part 135 organizations. they all ALL go through BO like starting pains, the ones that survive fix them and move on then most dont
Blue has what it takes to survive.. Money and a guy willing to spend it. what I suspect (and this is totally circumstantial based on observations no direct relationship) that slowed them down a lot was some poor senior management choices (typical startup) and an effort to define the economic thrust of the vehicle.
the time is not material unless someone else revolutionizes the market before and no one is going to do that this decade. Bezos and Blue will fly sooner than that.
so they will get their chance to take a stab at it
…ALL go through BO like starting pains…
While Blue has been busy going through its starting pains, SX, which started a couple of years after Blue, has been busy delivering cargo and crew to the ISS.
yes but they had startup dynamics as well. they were at one point down to their last launch attempt and money.
the dynamics difference is probably Musk himself. Unlike Bezos, Musk is actually technically competent…and that dynamic allowed him to see basic competence and incompetence or more correctly people who were competent and aligned with his vision against people who one way or another were not (or maybe were incompetent)
Plus the external forces that Musk had no control over were better so far. he got a break (after having a few go against him…two exactly) when the first F9 second stage ecountered roll problems but they were not enough to foul the mission. so it was a success. had the second stage spun out of control…well that would likely have been it
in addition the Commercial cargo came along at just the right time and what was it Kistler flamed out
nothing wrong with all this, its how you make your own luck by being good…and as I said Musk personal involvement was probably what “made them good”
Bezos on the other hand had “helP” that with his lack of first hand knowledge he didnt get rid of fast enough and it cost him time
now the game is wild. Musk is heavily invested in Starlink and ship…with the two of them being massively intertwined. so he has thrown his cards that way
Bezos, the Europeans, ULA and a lot of others have bet their cards on the pot of Starship is evolutionary not revolutionary and comes to some operational config that doesnt support an operational cost structure that is much different than today
or put it another way into some historical analogy its the Airbus 380 V the 350 Neo or the Dreamliner. because in the end its economics which will decide it
in a few years there are some good books here for someone to write (or whatever they call them then)
Good analysis…thank you. Here is an ironic factoid about Bezos that many people don’t know. From Wikipedia:
In 1986, he graduated summa cum laude from Princeton University with a 4.2 GPA and a Bachelor of Science in Engineering degree (B.S.E.) in electrical engineering and computer science; he was also a member of Phi Beta Kappa.
Yes. thank you…
Bezos and I share one thing in common (well maybe two…we are both losing/have less hair then we did some time ago). we are both degreed engineers. at my present place of work I carry the title “Senior engineer” .. …but I think we both recognized our best engineering days were probably at college or in my case grad school.
its never been more than a “key” for me to higher levels of aviation and now aviation management. that is why I so love amateur radio and modifying “light” (read general aviation) airplanes. Its not really my interest or passion. I can in an engineering review on FBW systems follow the song but the only thing I am sure I can detect in the 20 and 30 somethings that give the briefings is really gross errors and we dont have much of that
this is why I play with arduinos/etc. I am an aviator and thats where my heart and treasure lie in work 🙂
Musk is without a doubt well beyond me in that.
he seems to keep up with four or five engineering threads. I could but I love my kids and my family and revell in the joy of them. My 27 year old the F35 driver the legacy of my late wife…she is one of the three smiles in my heart. she is managing taking the KBonanza that her great grandfather and great grandmother bought new…into the latest engine and STEC autopilot upgrade. the 11 year old came to me today to talk about “My career in flying” and to map out her path to flight training but she wants to give the J3 a fly by wire system (we will work on that 🙂 my 7 year old is fascinated by the differences in Uranus and Neptune. A FEW DAYS ago she and I watched the Centaur fuel dump near Orion .
those are moments I would not trade for all of Musk money. but good for him that he did. Bezos is not much better of course.
anyway it will work out one way or the other I am sure. good night my friend. RGO
I would have loved the Kistler two stage trashcan. I loved it for its ugliness
Kistler was well interesting
I’m surprised that this test isn’t getting more coverage, it’s a pretty huge milestone for Blue Origin and New Glenn in terms of not only having produced hardware, but one that appears so far to have done what it’s supposed to as a complete system intended for use on that launcher.
Quite possibly the first time we know of such a thing for the NG program as BE-4 still is in the end phase of development and production start up.
Step by step…?
;-D
$L$ delenda est