Russia’s Changing Story on ISS and its New Space Station
by Douglas Messier
Managing Editor
Well, this is interesting. And by interest, I mean what cynics had been predicting all along.
In the space of a couple of weeks, Russia’s plan for the future of the International Space Station (ISS) shifted from full withdrawal in 2025, to gradual withdrawal and the launch of a new Russian-only station beginning in 2025, to we’re fine with extending ISS to 2028 and we’ll start launching our new station then.
Since the early withdrawal was predicated on ISS suffering a cascading series of failures starting in 2025, it seems like the station is suddenly in much better shape than it appeared only weeks ago. Or maybe Roscosmos got assurances (read: money) from NASA to provide help in dealing with anticipated failures in the Russian segment of the station. Or perhaps Russia extra some other consideration from the U.S. space agency. Or a reduction in sanctions.
Whatever the case, Russia’s latest plan to end all plans for ISS was laid out on Friday by Vladimir Soloviev, flight director of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, first deputy general designer for flight operation, testing of rocket and space complexes and systems of the Energia Rocket and Space Corporation, which is part of the Roscosmos State Corporation.
Wow. Just try to get that on a business card. Amirite?
Russia’s plan is to delay launch of the NEM-1 module originally scheduled to launch to ISS in 2022 by six years to 2028. A modified NEM-1 will instead form the core of the new Russian Orbital Space Station (ROSS).
NEM-1 will be launched aboard an Angara-A5 rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East. The original plan was to launch the module to ISS aboard a Proton M booster from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
The 2028 launch is dependent on the Angara A5 pad being ready in time. Construction and use of Vostochny has been delayed by years by graft and cost overruns, including a former construction official arrested in Minsk driving a diamond-encrusted Mercedes.
Not bad work if you can get it. And avoid the FSB, which this guy clearly couldn’t. I mean, really? A diamond encrusted Mercedes? Did he think nobody would notice? Or are there just dozens of wealthy crooks in Belarus and Russia driving around in diamond encrusted luxury automobiles?
In any event, the full ROSS station — set to include up to seven modules — won’t be completed until 2035. So said Alexander Bloshenko, Roscosmos executive director for advanced programs and science, on Friday.
It looks like ISS is safe until 2028. Unless, of course, Russia changes its mind again.
23 responses to “Russia’s Changing Story on ISS and its New Space Station”
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“Or are there just dozens of wealthy crooks in Belarus and Russia driving around in diamond encrusted luxury automobiles?”
Neoliberalism is best defined as Oligarchs with obscene wealth running the world….and eventually destroying it. It is only a fluke that two such exalted beings, Musk and Bezos, are hobbyists with rockets as their toy of choice. See how that works? While the NewSpace fans think this is working as a path to the future, it is actually not. It is a dead end.
In the pre-industrial world a lack of technology placed a limit on greed and restricted the damage that could be done by warring aristocrats- but that great filter in the Fermi Paradox has become quite obvious in the 21st century. A representative democracy is about a separation of powers keeping absolute greed in check. Following utilitarian principles the greatest good for the greatest number is the unchanging goal and progressive taxation the primary instrument.
The only real obstacle is what is decided by committee being corrupted by special interests that distract and divert for individual gain. This has always been the single great sin likely to doom humankind and result in extinction. There is a path, found using the scientific method, that leads to our species expanding into the cosmos and avoiding extinction. That path is NOT “entrepreneurs” and the profit motive.
A state sponsored long-term program of Super Heavy Lift Vehicles (SHLV’s) is the first prerequisite, and we do not have that yet. It is not another bunch of tin cans that is needed- it is a building block that can be mass produced to enable hundreds and eventually thousands of humans in space as a first step. The fundamental building block will have to provide the minimum interior volume to meet psychological needs for multi-year missions, incorporate a massive cosmic ray water shield, and have the structural strength to be spun using a tether generated artificial gravity system.
Very large double-hulled wet workshops (“Fat Workshops”), lofted with SHLV’s for the next 30 years, providing crew compartments for true space stations, Lunar Cyclers, and spaceships, are what is needed.
NewSpace delenda est
That doesn’t sound much like Orion. Are you sure you’re not talking about Starship?
🙂
The fanboy smirks….good ole boy. And a real “progressive”…what a joke.
You don’t know what you are talking about and just babbling. As usual.
That’s what my wife says.
Hahaha! 🙂
“The Russians can be mercurial,” @duheagle said to me just the other day, and look at that, they have done a reversal. Never mind. We won’t pull up stakes in 2025. 2028 sounds just fine.
My guess is someone got on the phone to Rogozin and told him to stop running his mouth. He doesn’t have the money to do any of the things he says he’s going to do, and if he thinks he has the money to do any of it then he clearly has too much money and is about to have less.
Meanwhile, yesterday some Russian language web site posted an article to Twitter claiming that Roscosmos was in discussions with NASA to finalize a seat swap arrangement. Rogozin replied, “No we are not. What for? We have our own ships.” So he’s still running his mouth. He can’t help himself.
https://twitter.com/Rogozin…
Rogozin like all those who are part of Putin’s government are only propaganda knowing full well that they do not have the necessary money to carry out the Russian space programs. There just isn’t. This is the only message we receive from Moscow today.
There’s an old hunter’s saying about bears – “If you know what a bear is going to do next, you know more than he does.”
The best plan is to deorbit this collection of junk as soon as practical. The 4 billion a year can then be used for SLS launches. The more launches, the less it costs, as Bridenstine stated. That 4 billion will likely enable 6 crewed launches a year to support a lunar return.
Maybe a launch. Surely not two. They can only build one a year, and even that is speculation.
You don’t have a clue fanboy. They can do two a year and all it takes is money to simply set up a duplicate production line and double that- and then set up another line for 6 per year. The price would go down to about 500 million each. That would be 3 billion a year and throw in another billion for setting up production. That 4 billion is what we are spending on the space station to nowhere.
Won’t be needing the toxic dragon or starliner anymore.
See how that works?
Of course you don’t.
Put your finger in the wind. Sniff the air. The SLS is dying.
About dying: The fantasy world of the fanboy is an amazing thing.
“A bunch of people will probably die” Elon Musk
First, there would be the little matter of where the money would come from to set up those extra production lines and pay the extra two shifts of workers who would be needed on all such production lines – assuming all that could somehow be shoehorned onto the current Michoud site which is surrounded on three sides by water. Tripling Michoud’s size and going to three-shift operations would require an 8-fold increase in workforce. As post-Katrina, post-Covid New Orleans isn’t exactly the garden spot of the universe, wage rates would have to increase a lot to attract the needed warm bodies. Total payroll would jump by well over an order of magnitude. Splashing ISS wouldn’t begin to cover the total bill.
Second, there would be the question of where all the extra workers would come from and where they would all live. Perhaps the badly depressed current state of the New Orleans housing market would cover the housing siuation – or not. The problem of recruitment would still remain.
And we haven’t even considered the effort required to expand production of all other SLS components to match the notional output of your fantasy Michoud. All this would result in no net reduction in unit costs for SLS core stages or any other part of SLS. It might well result in actual increases in such costs.
Third, there would be the question of how long all this would take to do. Given the long lead time and bespoke nature of the SLS core stage production tooling, the answer has to be several years at a minimum. SpaceX’s facility in Boca Chica has been mostly built from stuff that can be readily rented or ordered out of catalogs and, even so, has taken more than two years to get to its current still-incomplete state.
SLS hasn’t got that kind of time. Three years hence, Starship will be able to shoulder the entire Artemis job on its own and support mission cadences unmatchable even by your fever-dream fantasy SLS production facility. At that point, if not before, SLS will be well and truly toast.
Face facts, Gary. Humanity’s expansion into, and settlement of, space is going to proceed pretty much without reference to any of your strident admonitions about How Things Must Be Done. Get over yourself.
ISS will be around for a long time…sadly so will the Russians …they are mochers
Yes, the ISS will be around until a critical system fails and then there will be a ‘crisis” as efforts are made to do a control crash into the Pacific with it. Sadly NASA learned nothing after playing “Technology Russian Roulette” with the Space Shuttle extending it long after it should have been replaced.
At least this time around NASA has got the Axiom program rolling. Don’t you think that shows a little more foresight than in the past? Or too little too late?
they have other balls rolling as well. in terms of station systems
Only time will tell as the ISS may fail tomorrow, or may survive another decade. Just depends on when the critical system happens to fail.
nope. ISS will be around well into the 30’s. fly safe
Aww…. what’s the matter? Is nobody currently designing a space station that the Russians can steal the designs for? They finding out that actually designing their own aerospace project is far harder than just ripping one off from some other country? Poor cooky Russians….will they ever learn?