The Year of the Four Spaceships: Final Report
by Douglas Messier
Managing Editor
Back in February, I went out on a limb and predicted that 2020 could be the Year of the Four Spaceships, with SpaceX, Boeing, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic and reaching major milestones in human spaceflight. (See 2020: Four Spaceships & the End of America’s Cosmic Groundhog Day)
With the disruption and deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it wasn’t the easiest year to get things done. Keeping that in mind, let’s see how the companies did in 2020. (Spoiler Alert: they came up a little short.)
SpaceX
2020 Objectives: fly astronauts aboard Crew Dragon on the Demo-2 flight test to the International Space Station (ISS) and return them safely to Earth; begin commercial flights with the Crew-1 mission.
Result: Success
SpaceX broke a nearly nine-year drought of crewed orbital launches from U.S. soil by sending Demo-2 astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the space station on May 30. They returned to Earth on Aug. 2 after nearly 64 days in space.
On Nov. 15, a Falcon 9 launched the Crew-1 commercial mission to ISS. NASA astronauts Mike Hopkins, Victor Glover and Shannon Walker were aboard along with Japanese astronaut Soichi Noguchi. The mission will last six months.
Despite the pandemic, SpaceX launched 26 times this year, shattering its previous record of 21 launches in 2018.
Boeing
2020 Objectives: conduct a flight test of the Starliner crew vehicle to the space station with astronauts aboard; begin commercial flights to ISS.
Result: Nope
The uncrewed Starliner flight test in December 2019 failed to reach the space station and suffering software and communications failures that could have destroyed it on two occasions. The resulting investigation found numerous shortcomings in Boeing’s quality control.
Boeing is now scheduled to repeat the uncrewed mission to ISS on March 31, 2021. A second test with astronauts aboard would follow later in the year if the flight is successful.
Blue Origin
2020 Objective: complete New Shepard uncrewed flight test program; fly people aboard for the first time.
Result: Gradatim Denique (Step by Step, Eventually)
Blue Origin managed a single uncrewed New Shepard flight test with scientific experiments aboard on Oct. 13. It was the 13th flight of the system in a test program that began on April 29, 2015.
Additional flight tests with experiments and then test subjects are planned for the year ahead. Blue Origin has not provided a schedule for these flights.
Virgin Galactic
2020 Objectives: complete VSS Unity‘s flight test program; begin commercial suborbital tourism from Spaceport America in New Mexico with Richard Branson aboard in time for his 70th birthday on July 18.
Result: No blastoff for birthday boy Branson
On Feb. 22, 2019, VSS Unity touched down at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California after its second flight above 50 miles (80.4 km) in two months. The path seemed clear to complete the flight test program and begin flying suborbital tourists.
It took nearly 22 months before VSS Unity would attempt another powered flight. On Dec. 12, the vehicle’s rocket engine failed to fire, resulting in an aborted suborbital flight test and a quick return to the runway at Spaceport America in New Mexico. The company said the engine was shut down automatically after the computer lost contact with it.
Virgin Galactic is planning to conduct three more flight tests before beginning to fly tourists. These include:
- a repeat of the aborted Dec. 12 flight carrying a load of scientific experiments;
- a suborbital flight with four test subjects in the passenger cabin to evaluate the experience for ticket holders; and,
- a final test during which Branson will evaluate the experience before commercial flights begin.
If all these flights go well, then commercial service will begin sometime in 2021.
Fool Me Twice…Won’t Get Fooled Again
My batting average on predicting human spaceflight this year was .250, which is not bad for baseball but awful by every other measure. I think Punxsutawney Phil has a better record of predicting the arrival of spring.
Will Boeing, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic meet their goals in 2021? Will NASA’s Space Launch System finally send Orion around the moon?
Not going there. Not this time.
40 responses to “The Year of the Four Spaceships: Final Report”
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the Boeing one caught me as well…it was an utter catastrophe and a major disappointment to at least my predictions
I have darn near given up on Blue…I guess behind all those buildings they are building something but gee ….its proceeding along the same lines as the pace to get everyone vacinated which at current rates will take 10 years
Virgin? I think that the accident really caused them to scrub their machine pretty hard and grow a tad cautious…
congratulations to SpaceX. not only has their crew device performed well above what was advertised but their launch vehicle has reached an amazing maturity
should we make predictions in this thread ?
Happy new year Doug…and all the fellow arcers 🙂 all my best Robert
Blue suffers from knowing they get a billion dollar infusion whether they produce or not. It really does kill the fighter instinct.
maybe…I dont know what it is but they are spending money and so far no real results…although who knows they fly, they dazzle and its Amazon all over…but…its not clear to me
Happy new year
Happy New Year!
It certainly seems that way.
Regarding New Shepard, it seems BO did a major step back on that after that one manager yelled at everybody when they were supposed to travel from Washington state (I think it was) down to Texas (iirc) as COVID-19 was just getting into full swing to do a big pre-human launch test flight and team members started saying they didn’t think it was a good idea considering the pandemic. The manager said something like, “Ask yourself if you are really committed to the success of this project or if you are sabotaging it” or something like that and…
Been pretty quiet since then. I imagine upper management and/or Bezos himself stepped in and said something to the effect of “Safety first. This type of rush to launch is how the Challenger disaster happened”. Prolly did a full safety culture assesment after that one. If not, they sure should have.
Regarding New Glenn, it seems to me that they were over ambitious for their first orbital rocket. Not saying it can’t be done, but with no prior orbital experience, such a big, reusable rocket will take a LOT of prep to get done right the first time. Pretty reminiscent of the SLS approach, actually. As is the substantial flat funding with no commercial pressure to perform
If no one else wants to play, I’ll toss in the following bits of space-related prophecy for 2021 – if only to perhaps stimulate some additional visits and comments to benefit our worthy host’s web stats:
SpaceX: At least 40 missions to Earth orbit or beyond. At least two of these will be orbital tests of the SH-Starship stack. SH and Starship testing will also see SpaceX keep the suborbital launch crown it pinched from Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic this year. At least 12 suborbital tests of SH or Starship will launch in 2021. At least four of these will get above the Karman Line. Elon Musk will displace Jeff Bezos as the world’s richest man.
Blue Origin: Will do nothing publicly of much consequence. The National Team will be down-selected for NASA’s HLS program. Bezos will elect not to continue on his own dime though he may continue Blue Moon as a cargo-only lander. No New Glenn Launch. No New Shepard launches with people aboard. Perhaps another unmanned launch or two of New Shepard. Perhaps not. Blue will deliver a few flight-capable BE-4 engines to ULA. Gradatim aplenty. Ferociter – nowhere to be seen.
Virgin Galactic: Will suffer more testing setbacks and delays. Branson will not fly in 2021 nor will any revenue passengers. It’s a roughly 50-50 bet that Virgin Galactic will cease operations and liquidate by year’s end 2021.
Boeing: Will not achieve a Green Run test fire of the SLS Core Stage until 2Q 2021. Artemis 1 launch date will slip to June 2022. Keeping in step, LockMart’s Orion will still have no life support system for this test. The new Software Engineering VP Boeing hired away from SpaceX will bail out before Starliner’s OFT-2 test flies. That test won’t fly before June 2021 at the earliest, not March. There will still be niggling problems, but nothing to match the Dec. 2019 mess. Still, CFT will not fly before 4Q 2021 – more probably 1Q 2022. Certification at mid-year 2022. 1st operational mission with full crew complement – 4Q 2022.
Think your Boeing timelines are too optimistic. Expect they will shift a few more months to the right.
The SLS & Orion will continue to be behind schedule. Enough said.
The first operational Starliner will fly after 2022.
I think Starliner’s OFT flies not in March but May, and if it goes well (BIG if IMO) CFT may fly in early 2022. That said, I’m still unconvinced by Starliner’s clamshell capsule design – with a ~14 meter seam circumference I predict leaks caused by differential expansion. I know, I’ve been harping on that since the first CCDev drawings.
With Starliner’s delays we may see Crew Dragon Crew 4-5 before Starliner flies humans. I see 35+ SpaceX launches. After 2-3 successful Skydiver landings the Starship test envelopes expand rapidly, and we may see a point to point test (for the Air Transport Command **). Two Starship orbital attempts.
Blue Origin? Where to start… BE-4’s growing pains are delaying Vulcan and New Glenn, and it sounds to me like NG will need BE-4 Block 2 for reusability. /sigh…
Virgin Galactic’s SS2 will soon be irrelevant due to commercial orbital flights, Starship point to point, and things we haven’t seen yet.
** https://www.flightglobal.co…
I’m not going to gainsay you here. Boeing’s future performance is definitely not a hill I’m looking to die on. I will be monumentally unsurprised if I turn out to be wrong and you to be right.
I think VG will survive a bit longer as it serves Sir Richard Branson’s need to hype the Virgin brand. Don’t expect the flight rate to improve as the fewer flights the less risk of damaging the name with an accident. Sir Richard Branson will find some why to keep the ticket holders happy, he is good at it.
Heh, maybe Sir Branson could just sell Virgin Galactic’s ticket obligations to Musk to take people up and down at Spaceport America in a Starship pass the Kármán line a few scores per flight.
You could well be right. Two years ago I figured we would have read Virgin Galactic’s obit by now. Branson has certainly proven himself to be a master of levitation illusions of sufficient scale to put the Davids Blaine and Copperfield to shame.
Blue Origin needs some sort of change, obviously. Perhaps if Bezoz committed to it full time, he could make something of it. Hiring other people to move the ball forward is not working.
Since Bezos is an acolyte of Gerard O’Neill, I’d like to see BO pioneer artificial gravity, which is something I think we really need to make space a viable place for humans. But he needs to fly his rocket first, or throw in the towel and book flights with his personal nemesis.
Re: BO developing artificial gravity
Yeah, that would be great. Unfortunately, everyone wants to do launch. Well, everyone but Bigelow, and I’ll have to admit that approach didn’t work out so well for him
Bigelow wanted to do space stations, but not ones with artificial gravity.
In the past I’ve suggested – only somewhat tongue-in-cheek – that what Bezos really needs to do is bring on Peter Beck as Blue Origin CEO or maybe just buy Rocket Lab in toto and put the whole Kiwi crew in charge of Blue.
I agree that artificial gravity has been criminally neglected. It would be nice if Bezos did something about that. But, as usual, I suspect it will be Elon Musk who gets to it first in a big way – perhaps as soon as mid-decade.
The next 24 months will, I think, see a make-or-break time for Blue Origin. If it can’t get beyond dog-paddling in the shallow end of the pool by the end of 2022, it might as well close down. If New Glenn hasn’t flown by then, Blue will have missed whatever chance it might once have had of being consequential competition for SpaceX.
Right now, Blue looks like a NewSpace company with progeria.
When it comes to manned spaceflight in 2021, don’t forget the Chinese launch of the first module of their Space Station.
Ohhh you’re so right! the LM5 is ready!
Doug in the real world of prognostication, 0.25 is not bad at all esp in dynamic times.
I’ll go in the record with some Sci-Fi.
3X Space X launches. As in 30 something. Likely low 30’s to high 20’s. Starlink will start making something resembling real money. Space X will announce more sales of Dragon 2 flights.
Starship hops about every month to 6 weeks. Failures of course, but these failures will be the bedrock of lessons learned for maritime scale space launch. I vote against any orbital flights. If they go to orbit, it’s a flight to orbit with a landing in the SE Pacific as a spent payload. I expect reentry to be a problem.
SuperHeavy will show itself. Maybe survive chill down, maybe ignite the engines. I doubt fly with all the engines. I expect the announcement of a ‘not-so’ SuperHeavy, which will in real life will be still be pretty damn heavy.
Virgin Orbit makes it. At this point SS2 is beyond irrelevant. Offers a ‘squadron’ of two 747 launchers and boosters as responsive QRA lauchers to USSF and GB.
Great Brittan offers to add some capability to USSF in a joint squadron to distinguish itself with the EU in defense ties.
Rocket Lab reuses two or three boosters. Announces parallel stage cross tanking for ‘heavy’ Electrons.
Blue delivers working engines to ULA, rolls out a mostly real New Glenn to the pad. New Sheppard is irrelevant.
ULA. Just keeps using Atlas and what’s left of Delta, delays Vulcan to early ’22.
China starts tippy toeing LM8 to its first booster reuse. They’re finishing out a lot of their big projects, so I’m thinking we might see a drop in launches.
Starliner will work. NASA will begin to assess how well it will integrate into manned operations as Dragon 2 matures and performs on multiple operational flights. Dragon 2
will be the standard against which Starliner will be measured.
Soyuz is going to hit the financial wall either this year or next. The day or reckoning for Soyuz is near.
Happy New Year Everyone!
forgot to mention ULA…launch vehicles…ok not much to mention 🙂 it will fly…but until ULA moves on the long term Centaur…they dont have a real product
As with therealdmt, I think your predictions are probably within a standard deviation of the truth – though I think some will be on one side of the center line and others will be on the other side.
Thanks. But the Chinese say my prediction for them is already wrong. Guess I should not apply for that job opening with California Psychics.
Oh, I don’t know. Let’s first see how well the Chinese do toward backing their brag. No need to give up a promising career until it becomes completely clear you’re not cut out for it. If the Chinese don’t do at least three successful launches by 1-31-2021, then your future career as a psychic may still have legs.
Great wrap-up, Doug. I love the humor. Happy New Year!
And most importantly, will the Starship reach orbit and leave Boeing, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic so far behind in the dust they become irrelevant.?
Good summary Doug!
The ISS is a good example of the “sunk cost fallacy” in action and will stay in orbit, no matter who is president, until an accident forces it to be abandoned. Like the Space Shuttle, it’s a classic example of Technological Russian Roulette, dragging it out long beyond it’s shelf life. I just hope no one is hurt when it fails.
Also you are confusing Virgin Galactic (SpaceshipTwo) and Virgin Orbit (B747 launcher). Remember, Sir Richard Branson spun off the only part of the old VG likely to make a profit before he did the reverse IPO.
Happy New year Thomas
LOL my main comment seems to have been marked as “spam” LOL so well…
in my view ISS is essential for commercializing low earth orbit…there is no way to get to a low earth orbit space industrial complex without it
I think Spaceship Two has possibly a long future. if they are successful, in my view they will have a wide customer base
Happy New Year Robert! Yes, it makes no sense as it was a good post.
Could you possibly repost your main comment so we slowcoaches can read it ?
-Failed to add this as a separate reply :
Will the ISS orbital inclination be a problem ?
NASA’s management of ISS is very expensive. Would a more commercial station do instead ?
I see its gone away twice…I will rewrite it latter today in “non spam form” whatever that is …happy new year and good morning
My predictions (in short) LOL
the lunar return is put into hibernation. there will be some commission to study where all this is going…and when “a good date” is to shoot for. the problem is that SLS is to expensive…and there is really no interest in spending more money…there is about 3 billion to play with and SLS takes nearly all of it…
Boeing will fly but latter in the year than they think and they wont get the crewed vehicle flight in this year. there will not be any real troubles on the uncrewed flight…but well program management is changed big time…and they are cautious. there is no room for error (and this is sad, a lot of reputations have collapsed in my view with this)
Virgin will fly passengers and settle on a flight rate of about 1 a month. they are cautious after the accident…maybe to cautious. but thats how the game is played…once they start flying they will have a lot of customers
the commercialization of ISS will continue as Axiom gets the leg up to take over the station as NASA fades out of it…they will sign a deal with SpaceX soon for more launches, OSC (NG) for supply flights and maybe SNC for cargo return…this and NASA being involved in the Biden green new deal will be the main thrust of NASA
a commission will sort out the planetary program. you can have either a Mars sample return or a lunar program and the MSR will win out…time period unknown
SpaceX will continue SS/SH but its hard to guess with SNX will actually complete the belly flop/land maneuver. Then comes reentry test…which will take awhile. IE nothing will fly to orbit in 21 or 22.
Chinese will fly the first module of their space station. what they will do with a space station will be fun to watch …
I’ll stop here so its not spam 🙂 Happy new year
Pretty good one!
I’m always surprised how many people underestimate the market for suborbital flights and/or confound it with orbital flights.
So I agree that VG will fly for quite some time once they get everything sorted out.
Happy new year my friend. the sub orbital market is to me essential in generating a market for longer flights.
I suspect that the market for orbital flight at XX (around 60 million a flight) is probably over stated and really right now is in low double digits. the problem with orbital flight is it is to expensive now to let people who are “space groupies” go…and the folks who have the money mostly dont want to risk their lives…(and cannot because of insurance) …and also its not the kind of vacation the uber rich take
the “suborbital jaunt” is. its a party atmosphere with “some sense of danger” but hopefully not to much and its mostly party and fun with a few intense minutes, then its back to party and fun on the way to a social topic.
also as flight rates go up…the price will come down to “well off groupie” level…which will broaden the field….
I think that these flights will sale like hotcakes once as you say “they get everything sorted out” be safe this year
Happy new year to you as well!
Orbital Space tourism will remain expensive so long as D2, Starliner and Soyuz are the only vehicle choices. Once a large-scale, short-duration, passenger-carrying version of Starship debuts – say, in 2023 – the appeal of suborbital jaunts will be mainly as a screening/familiarization process for people looking to spend maybe a million apiece to go to orbit for anywhere from a few hours to a day or so.
The one that made it across the line was going to do it with or without COVID, the ones that didn’t make it, weren’t going to anyway.
Doug…any reason my predictions got marked as SPAM 🙂
SpaceX < 36 orbital launches, but > 30
Starship to orbit in ‘21? Maybe. I hope so, and it’s not impossible. A landing from a 10+km hop in January or February. First Super Heavy hop (with just a few engines).
NASA selects the “National Team” and SpaceX for lunar lander development
Biden announces 2027 for the first Artemis lunar landing date (somewhere in the 2026 to 2028
range).
BO resumes New Shepard test flights, carries no passengers in 2021. Delivers engines to ULA. No New Glenn flight yet.
ULA doesn’t fly Vulcan this year (but does in 2022).
Starliner completes its uncrewed test flight and gets in its first crewed flight near the end of the year. First operational flight in 2022.
Virgin Galactic resumes test flights and gets another flight in with non-pilot company personnel onboard. No commercial flights in 2021. Branson finally flies in 2022.
Virgin Orbit reaches orbit.
SLS finally completes Green Run. Doesn’t quite launch in 2021 (flight delayed to early 2022).
You can bank on all of the above! Haha – who knows 😀
Basically, I look forward to reasonable progress, with SpaceX not quite meeting our wildest hopes and Musk’s most ambitious timelines, but still markedly moving the ball forward, and with the other big players also moving forward, but notably more slowly
NASA selects the “National Team” and SpaceX for lunar lander development
Biden announces 2027 for the first Artemis lunar landing date (somewhere in the 2026 to 2028
range).
possible but either choice dooms the effort…
So you figure the old-timers will do 10% – 25% better than I think they will and that SpaceX will do maybe 10% – 25% less than I think it’ll do. I suspect our estimates are both within one standard deviation of what the truth turns out to be.