Monday Musings: Brazil’s Choices, VG’s Finances & More
by Douglas Messier
Managing Editor
A few thoughts as we begin week 403 of the Covid-19 lock down….
Location. Location. Location.
The three most important words in real estate. And Brazil’s Alcantara Launch Center has got it.
Located on Brazil’s east coast closer to the equator than the European spaceport in French Guiana, Alcantara is perfectly situated for both equatorial and polar launches. So far, it has only hosted suborbital launches as repeated orbital launch vehicle programs have faltered.
There’s definite interest in operating from the underused base. The Brazilan Space Agency has received 14 proposals in an open call that ends on Aug. 31.
That sounds great, but there’s a catch. Most companies these days don’t locate facilities anywhere without having their hands out. They want governments to build facilities, improve infrastructure and provide lavish tax breaks worth many millions of dollars.
Unfortunately, Brazil’s space budget is very small. The question officials will likely face as they sort through the proposals is: Just how much space can Brazil afford?
The answer will determine whether Alcantara blossoms into a world-class launch facility or remains, perhaps perpetually, the spaceport of the future.
It’s been a long road
Getting from there to here…
Virgin Galactic has suffered many, many delays in its 16 year quest to launch Richard Branson and thousands of others on suborbital joy rides.
VG typically deals with these delays by announcing new programs and agreements and holding various events designed to show progress even as the schedule slips further to the right for reasons the company tries to keep quiet.
The last two months have been no exception. VG has:
- announced a MOU with NASA for a program to train commercial astronauts for orbital missions
- hired a new CEO from the Disney Company
- unveiled the design for SpaceShipTwo’s interior
- announced plans for a Mach 3 transport plane carrying up to 19 passengers
- signed a MOU with Rolls-Royce on engine development.
All that came in the run up to another distressing quarterly earnings report earlier this month. A $63 million net loss ($123 million for the year). Zero quarterly revenues. Scant prospects for much revenue for the rest of 2020. And existing shares to be diluted by plans to sell $460 million of new stock.
And yet another delay. When VG and Social Capital Hedosophia were selling a merger last year that made VG a public company, they projected commercial flights to begin in June 2020. That clearly didn’t happen.
The new plan is to conduct two more flight tests of SpaceShipTwo VSS Unity beginning in the fall. If those go well, Branson will be aboard the first commercial flight in Q1 2021.
Little wonder the stock tanked. All the future plans in the world can’t make up for a lack of progress in the air. And there hasn’t been very much lately.
Unity‘s last powered flight was on Feb. 22, 2019, from the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. The next one, scheduled this fall from VG’s operating base at Spaceport America in New Mexico, means there will be at least a 19-month gap in suborbital launches.
In between, Unity has flown only two glide flights at Spaceport America. All this from a company that is expecting to fly Unity and its four sister ships multiple times per week.
The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly slowed testing. However, California didn’t issue a stay-at-home order until March 19, 2020. New Mexico followed suit four days later on March 23.
During those 13 months, the only flight by Unity was beneath WhiteKnightTwo VMS Eve as the space plane was relocated to New Mexico. The glide flights came later.
The long gap in powered flights has never been fully explained. Outfitting the passenger cabin and improving the ship for multiple flights shouldn’t have taken that long.
It should have been a question raised by analysts during the quarterly earnings call. However, VG used SEC restrictions relating on the stock sale to avoid taking any questions from analysts.
It’s August in the High Desert, which means things are getting really icky. There are major wildfires across the state, the smoke from some of them fouling the Antelope Valley’s air. Utility companies are also planning rolling blackouts to maintain the sagging power grid.
And it’s hot. The temperature reached an oven-like 108 F (42.2 C) in Mojave on Sunday. We’re looking at 109 F (42.8 C) today. None of which is helping the brave firefighters battling the blazes across the Golden State.
On Friday, we had what Doug Jones of the late, lamented XCOR calls six inches of rain. This is a summertime phenomenon where big raindrops fall about six inches or so from each other.
Unfortunately, there’s seldom any accumulation, which does nothing to cool things down. And the lightning these storms can bring sometimes set off brush and wildfires.
Wherever you are, stay cool (or warm, if you’re south of the equator). Wear a mask and stay safe from the coronavirus.
5 responses to “Monday Musings: Brazil’s Choices, VG’s Finances & More”
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Actually the thinking that a launch location on the equator is best is a legacy from the 1950’s.
In practice Alcantara puts you under the most intense part of the Inner Van Allen Belt which exposes flights that are in higher orbits (GEO) and beyond Earth orbit to higher radiation levels. It is also located as the edge of the South Atlantic Anomaly which is another radiation hazard.
Although high inclination orbits are possible it has no locational advantage over other more accessible launch sites. Then you need to add in the remoteness of the location along with ITAR issues for U.S. firms and there are no cost advantages.
So it is not surprising that development has failed to live up to expectations.
Yes Cal got some rain from a tropical storm. Here is something to think about. SpaceX is building the Super Heavy launch pad, but they are not using standard pilings. They are drilling holes, inserting re-bar cages and pouring concrete. I have never seen this before. Normally pre-stressed concrete pilings are driven into the ground. Maybe the pilings are bigger to make up the difference in strength that pre- stresssing gives. However, rust may be a problem as the steel is not centered in the concrete. Noise is less since there is no pile driving. I hope it works. What a million lbs loaded for Super Heavy?
You are building on what is basically nothing but a stabilized sand bar in a shifting river delta so it probably works better.
When the border with Mexico was first drawn the river flowed south of the site before shifting to its present location. But given the dams on the Rio Grande and the dredged ship channel it will probably be stable for a while.
I am surprised VG didn’t have it’s own story. Yes, the long delays between flights don’t speak well for the pace they will need for tourist flights. Using COVID-19 as a excuse only goes so far. Maybe they are having issues with doing the engine work so far from Mojave in the new facilities.
BTW Doug, as you noted in your history of VG it was founded in 1999, so its been seeking a way to fly Richard Branson for over 21 years now.
http://www.parabolicarc.com…
I’m not really a SpaceX fanatic but at the rate they’re going, VG and BO’s suborbital tourists will be able to look up and wave to the orbital tourists passing overhead on SpaceX vehicles.