Russian Launch Failures Aren't a Bug, They're a Feature

A Proton takes a nose dive at Baikonur. (Credit: Tsenki TV)

by Douglas Messier
Managing Edior

Over the past few years, I’ve been keeping track of Russia’s annual launch failures. For reasons I can’t quite recall, the table I’ve used only went back to 2009.

Recently, I saw a graphic on a Russian website about launch failures, and I realized I hadn’t gone back far enough. So, I dug into the records of the last 30 years from 1988 through 2017, which covers Russia and the last four years of the Soviet Union.

And holy crap! There were a helluva lot of them. Launch failures are not a bug in the system, they’re a feature.

The table below shows all the failed and partially failed launches from 1988 to 2017. I’ve included the causes of the failures where possible. I wasn’t able to find causes for five of the launches; if anyone has reliable sources on these flights please let me know in the comments section.

RUSSIAN LAUNCH FAILURES, 1988 – 2017
NO.	DATE	LAUNCH VEHICLE	PAYLOAD(S)	RESULT	CAUSE
1	January 18, 1988	Proton-K Blok-DM-2	Gorizont 25L	Failure	Third stage failure due to disintegration of propellant feed line
2	February 17, 1988	Proton-K Blok-DM-2	Uragan #23, Uragan #24, Uragan #25	Partial Failure	Blok D failure caused by ingestion of debris
3	July 09, 1988	Soyuz-U	Yantar-4KS1 #10	Failure
4	July 27, 1988	Soyuz-U	Resurs-F1	Failure	First stage engine failure.
5	November 11, 1988	Soyuz-U	Yantar-4KS1 #11	Failure
6	June 9, 1989	Tsiklon-3	Okean-O1 #4	Failure
7	April 3, 1990	Soyuz-U	Yantar-4K2 #51	Failure
8	June 21, 1990	Molniya-M (Blok-2BL)	Kosmos 2084	Partial Failure	Placed in an incorrect orbit. Satellite did not communicate with ground
9	July 3, 1990	Soyuz-U	Yantar-4K2 #53	Failure
10.	August 9, 1990	Proton-K Blok-DM-2	Ekran-M 14L	Failure	Third stage lost thrust due to a cleaning rag inside propellant feed system
11	October 4, 1990	Zenit-2	Tselina-2 #8	Failure	First stage engine failure five seconds after launch.
12	June 25, 1991	Kosmos-3M	Taifun-2 #26	Failure	Second stage malfunction
13	August 30, 1991	Zenit-2	Tselina-2 #9	Failure	Second stage explosion
14	February 5, 1992	Zenit-2	Tselina-2 #10	Failure	Second stage failure
15	May 27, 1993	Proton-K Blok-DM-2	Gorizont 39L	Failure	Third stage failure
16	May 25, 1994	Tsiklon-3	Tselina-D #69	Failure	Software error prevented third stage separation
17	March 28, 1995	Start	Gurwin 1, EKV, OSCAR 29	Failure	Failed to orbit, crashed into the Sea of Okhotsk
18	October 6, 1995	Kosmos-3M	Kosmos 2321 (Parus #84)	Partial Failure	Second stage malfunction, placed in useless orbit
19	February 19, 1996	Proton-K Blok-DM-2	Raduga 33	Partial Failure	Blok-DM-2 upper stage failed to restart to circularize orbit
20	May 14, 1996	Soyuz-U	Yantar-1KFT #18	Failure	Payload fairing disintegrated in flight
21	June 20, 1996	Soyuz-U	Yantar-4K2 #76	Failure	Payload fairing disintegrated in flight
22	November 16, 1996	Proton-K Blok-D-2	Mars ’96	Partial Failure	Probe re-entered atmosphere after fourth stage failure
23	May 20, 1997	Zenit-2	Tselina-2 #19	Failure	First stage failure
24	December 24, 1997	Proton-K Blok-DM3	AsiaSat 3	Partial Failure	Fourth stage malfunction prevented satellite from reaching geosynchronous orbit; salvaged with lunar flyby
25	June 15, 1998	Tsiklon-3	Strela-3 #119, Strela-3 #120, Strela-3 #121, Strela-3 #122, Strela-3 #123, Strela-3 #124	Partial Failure	Third stage malfunction left satellites in unintended elliptical orbit
26	September 09, 1998	Zenit-2	Globalstar 5, Globalstar 7, Globalstar 9, Globalstar 10, Globalstar 11, Globalstar 12, Globalstar 13, Globalstar 16, Globalstar 17, Globalstar 18, Globalstar 20, Globalstar 21	Failure	Second stage shut down after guidance system failed
27	July 05, 1999	Proton-K Briz-M	Raduga (34) (Gran 45L)	Failure	Second stage failure
28	October 27, 1999	Proton-K Blok-DM-2M	Ekspress-A 1	Failure	Second stage failure
29	December 24, 1999	Rokot-K	RVSN 40	Failure	Stage-separation fired before launch
30	November 20, 2000	Kosmos-3M	QuickBird 1 (QB 1)	Failure	Second stage failed to ignite
31	December 27, 2000	Tsiklon-3	Gonets 7, Gonets 8, Gonets 9, Strela-3 #125, Strela-3 #126, Strela-3 #127	Failure	Third stage failure
32	October 15, 2002	Soyuz-U	Foton-M 1	Failure	First stage exploded seconds after launch
33	November 25, 2002	Proton-K Blok-DM3	Astra 1K	Failure	Blok-DM3 left satellite in unusable orbit; spacecraft de-orbited 15 days after launch
34	Dec. 24, 2004	Tsiklon-3	Sich 1M, Micron 1	Partial Failure	Booster failed to circularize orbit
35	June 21, 2005	Molniya-M Blok-ML	Molniya-3K	Failure	Third stage failure
36	June 21, 2005	Volna-O	Cosmos 1	Failure	Cosmos Studios/The Planetary Society solar sail satellite failed to separate from booster third stage
37	August 10, 2005	Rokot Briz-KM	Cryosat	Failure	Second stage failure; crashed in Arctic Ocean north of Greenland
38	February 28, 2006	Proton-M Briz-M	Arabsat 4A (Badr 1)	Failure	Failed to reach usable orbit; de-orbited 24 days after launch
39	July 26, 2006	Dnepr	BelKa 1, Baumanets 1, Unisat 4, PicPot, CP 1, CP 2, HAUSAT 1, ICECube 1, ICECube 2, ION, KUTESat-Pathfinder, Mea Huaka’i, MEROPE, Ncube 1, Rincon 1, SACRED SEEDS, AeroCube 1	Failure	Engine failure
40	Sept. 5, 2007	Proton-M/Briz-M	JCSat 11	Failure	Second stage failure; booster and payload crashed in Kazakhstan
41	March 14, 2008	Proton-M/Briz-M	AMC 14	Partial Failure	Briz-M upper stage shut down 2 minutes early. Owner SES Americom declared satellite a complete loss. AMC 14 sold to US Department of Defense which manuevered into geosynchronous orbit using on-board thrusters.
42	May 21, 2009	Soyuz-2.1a/ Fregat	Meridian 2	Failure	Second stage shut down early, Fregat upper stage ran out of fuel trying to compensate. Satellite left in useless orbit, declared a loss by Russian military.
43	Dec. 5, 2010	Proton-M/ Blok-DM-3	Uragan-M #739, Uragan-M #740, Uragan-M #741	Failure	Rocket failed to reach orbital velocity after upper stage overfilled with propellant.
44	Feb. 1, 2011	Rokot/Briz-KM	Geo-IK-2 No. 11	Failure	Upper stage malfunction.
45	Aug. 17, 2011	Proton-M/ Briz-M	Ekspress AM4	Failure	Briz-M upper stage suffered failure of attitude control.
46	Aug. 24, 2011	Soyuz-U	Progress M-12	Failure	Third stage failure due to turbo-pump duct blockage.
47	Nov. 8, 2011	Zenit-2SB/ Fregat	Phobos-Grunt Yinghuo-1	Failure	Zenit placed Phobos-Grunt in proper orbit. Spacecraft stranded in Earth orbit after Fregat failed to fire.
48	Dec. 23, 2011	Soyuz-2.1b/ Fregat	Meridian 5	Failure	Third stage failure.
49	Aug. 6, 2012	Proton-M/ Briz-M	Telkom-3, Ekspress MD2	Failure	Briz-M upper stage failed 7 seconds into its third burn.
50	Dec. 8, 2012	Proton-M/ Briz-M	Yamal-402	Partial Failure	Briz-M upper stage shut down 4 minutes earlier than planned on fourth burn. Spacecraft reached intended orbit under own power.
51	Jan. 15, 2013	Rokot/Briz-KM	Kosmos 2482, Kosmos 2483, Kosmos 2484	Partial Failure	Upper stage failed near time of spacecraft separation; one satellite destroyed.
52	Feb. 1, 2013	Zenit-3SL (Sea Launch)	Intelsat 27	Failure	First stage failure.
53	July 2, 2013	Proton-M/DM-03	Uragan-M #748, Uragan-M #749, Uragan-M #750	Failure	First stage failure.
54	May 15, 2014	Proton-M/Briz-M	Ekspress AM4R	Failure	Proton third stage vernier engine failure due to turbo-pump leak.
55	Aug. 14, 2014	Soyuz-STB/ Fregat	Galileo FOC-1, Galileo FOC-2	Partial Failure	Satellites placed in wrong orbits due to freezing of hydrazine in Fregat upper stage. Satellites made operational as part of Europe’s Galileo navigation constellation.
56	April 28, 2015	Soyuz-2.1a	Progress 59P	Failure	Third stage failure left Progress in uncontrollable tumble.
57	May 16, 2015	Proton/Briz-M	MexSat-1	Failure	Third stage failure anomaly.
58	December 5, 2015	Soyuz-2.1v/ Volga	Kanopus ST KYuA 1	Partial Failure	Primary payload Kanopus ST remained attached to upper stage, later burned up in atmosphere. Secondary payload KYuA 1 deployed successfully.
59	December 1, 2016	Soyuz U	Progress MS-04	Failure	Third stage failure. Progress supply ship burned up in atmosphere.
60	November 28, 2017	Soyuz 2-1b	Meteor-M 2-1, 18 CubeSats	Failure	Fregat upper stage failure.

I’ve included some launches of some boosters such as Zenit and Dnepr boosters that were not totally Russian. Sea Launch uses boosters composed of Ukrainian and Russian elements. Until 2010, Sea Launch was owned by a consortium of Russian, Ukrainian, American and Norwegian partners. Since then, Sea Launch has been majority owned by Russian companies.

Part of the reason they’ve had so many failures is that historically, the Soviet and Russian space programs have tended to launch more times than any of the world’s space powers. When you figure that a certain percentage of all boosters will fail in some way, then you end up with a relatively high number.

The breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the space program spread across three countries. Russia retained the majority of the production capacity while most of the rest was in Ukraine. The principle spaceport, Baikonur, ended up in the new nation of Kazakhstan.

The chaotic transition to a market economy in the 1990’s also left Russia’s space program in dire straits. Although Russian rockets became competitive in the satellite launch market, there was a serious lack of investment by the federal government in upgrading facilities and developing new space technologies.

Russian dominance in the launch market has been challenged in recent years due to failures, quality control problems, and the rise of SpaceX. Russia finished third in launches in 2016 with only 19 behind the United States and China. Russia improved its total to 21 in 2017, which was still low by historical standards.