Khrunichev Struggles With Upper Stage Quality
Following the failure of a Proton rocket earlier this month, Khrunichev published figures on its launches and success rate for the past five years to correct what it saw as erroneous information circulating in the media.
The data and analysis below is based on that information. I have added success rate percentages, rewritten Khrunichev’s information to make it more readable, and added my own analysis.
The overall picture is one of a company struggling with quality control on its own upper stages, with the resulting loss of about 10 percent of its launches.
Khrunichev Missions by Launch Vehicle
|
Launch Vehicle |
Number of Launches |
Unsuccessful Launches |
Success Rate (Percentage) |
| Proton-M |
48 |
4 |
91.67 |
| Rockot |
8 |
1 |
87.50 |
| Cosmos-3M |
5 |
0 |
100 |
| TOTALS |
61 |
5 |
90.16 |
Analysis
All five launch failures have been caused by malfunctions of the rockets’ upper stages. The “Breeze-M” produced by Khrunichev has failed three times, once on the Rockot and three times on Proton. A Khrunichev Breeze-KM stage failed once. The other launch failure was caused by a problem with the Blok-DM upper stage built by RSC Energia. A total of 8 satellites have been lost, 7 on Proton failures and 1 with a Rockot failure.
Proton Launch Figures
|
Year |
Number of Launches |
For Roscosmos and Ministry of Defence |
For Foreign Customers |
Unsuccessful Launches |
Success Rate (Percentage) |
|
2008 |
10 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
90 |
|
2009 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
100 |
|
2010 |
12 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
91.67 |
|
2011 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
88.89 |
|
2012 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
85.71 |
|
TOTALS |
48 |
17 |
31 |
4 |
91.67 |
Analysis of Proton Launches, 2008-2012
There have been 48 launches since 2008, with 4 failures for an overall success rate of 91.67 percent. There were 3 failures of the Khrunichev Breeze-M upper stage, 1 failure of the Breeze-KM stage, and 1 failure of RSC Energia’s Blok-DM upper stage. A total of 7 satellites have been lost in Proton failures.
2008
- 10 Proton launches, 9 successful
- 5 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defence, all successful
- 5 launches for foreign customers with 1 failure
- 1 failure caused by Khrunichev Breeze-M upper stage
- 1 AMC-14 communications satellite lost
2009
- 10 Proton launches, all successful
- 3 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defence
- 7 launches for foreign customers
2010
- 12 Proton launches, 11 successful
- 4 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defence with 1 failure
- 8 launches for foreign customers, all successful
- 1 failure caused by RSC Energia Blok-DM upper stage
- 3 Glonass navigational satellites lost
2011
- 9 Proton launches, 8 successful
- 4 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defence with 1 failure
- 5 launches for foreign customers, all successful
- 1 failure caused by Khrunichev Breeze-M upper stage
- 1 Express-AM4 communications satellite lost
2012
- 7 Proton launches, 6 successful
- 2 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defence
- 5 launches for foreign customers
- 1 failure caused by Khrunichev Breeze-M upper stage
- 1 Express-MD-2 and 1 Telkom-3 communications satellites lost
Analysis of Rockot Launches, 2008-2012
Rockot
- 8 Rockot launches, 7 successful
- Success rate of 87.5 percent
- 5 launches for Federal Space Program and Ministry of Defence
- 3 launches for foreign customers
- 1 failure caused by Khrunichev Breeze-KM upper stage
- 1 GEO-IK Earth observation satellite lost
Analysis of Cosmos-3M Launches, 2008-2012
Cosmos-3M
- Five successful launches with no failures
- 2 launches for the Federal Space Program and the Ministry of Defense
- 3 launches for foreign customers
5 responses to “Khrunichev Struggles With Upper Stage Quality”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
The Glonass failure was NOT due to the Block DM. The stage was overfilled with propellants and was consequently more than a tonne overweight at launch. It was human error pure and simple.
True enough. I’m also assuming that the failures of the other upper stages were due to human errors during production.
The points are that: a) it was not an inherent design error, and b) it should not be attributed to the stage.
The failures could have been design errors that opened the door for human errors. Example: if a plug can be inserted into a socket one way or also twisted 180 deg, that is a design error that allows a human error.
I think the broader picture here is one of overall process difficultly, not design issues. The Russians have had more successful launches in the last 4 years than America has had launches in that period (someone please correct me if that’s wrong), something to keep in mind while talking about the design of their vehicles (you might also include atlas V launches in those figures, since the first stage engines are made in russia)