New Mexico: Waiting for Godot (and VSS Enterprise)

The New York Times looks at how Spaceport America — launched by Gov. Bill Richardson in 2005 when New Mexico was flush with tax revenues — is faring today amid an economic downturn and years of delay in launching commercial suborbital spaceflights.

New Gov. Susana Martinez says that the state’s $209 million investment is enough, and she wants private sector investment for improvements and expansions. Others say this could be a dangerous path:

“Let’s face it — privatizing the Spaceport means selling it off and trying to remove any risk to the state,” said Rick Homans, who was appointed by Mr. Richardson as the facility’s executive director until Ms. Martinez asked him to step down. “The message would be that the state is not committed long term, and the new industry will look at other states where they can find a fully engaged partner.”…

In other words, the state needs to pay up for infrastructure or all the millionauts will go elsewhere. And that would be easy because really, all you need is a long enough runway and hanger and processing facilities for the vehicles.

Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides, whose company will ultimately spend about $400 million on the technology, says the government’s investment will pay off:

Mr. Whitesides predicted that the spectacle of the rich and famous being rocketed into space will lure much needed work here, and Virgin is looking at building a luxury hotel nearby.

“Clearly, the state’s economy has changed. That said, most of the money has either already been allocated or spent on the project,” said Mr. Whitesides, a former chief of staff for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “I really do think this is a case where the investment has been made, and a relatively small expenditure will open the possibility for tremendous growth in New Mexico.”

But, when precisely will that begin to happen? The Times quotes Whitesides as saying recently that commercial flights will begin “within two years.”

Huh.

At the end of November, Whitesides boss, Richard Branson, estimated 15 months until commercial flights, which would have them occurring about this time next year. Whitesides latest estimate puts those flights at this time two years from now at the outside. Of course, Whitesides could be very conservative in his public estimates, and the flights could go off according to Branson’s schedule. But, past history does not lend itself to optimism.

Doing the math associated with the worst-case scenario, this means that commencement of commercial flights might have slipped by as much as a year just over the last three months.

Why does this all remind me of the Constellation program? Six months would go by, NASA would fall another year behind schedule, the shuttle schedule would stay more or less where it was, and the gap in human spaceflight would grow accordingly.

We’ll see what happens. Eventually, someone will fly to space commercially from New Mexico and tax dollars will begin flowing in. The main questions are when and how much more — if anything — it will cost the state’s hard hit residents.