FAA’s Launch Rate Projections, Commercial Space and the Future of NASA

Excerpts from: FAA 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts

Orbital Facilities Assembly and Service Launch Demand Summary

Demand for launch OFAS payloads will begin during the forecast period with an average annual launch rate of four launches. Delays in development of OFAS launch services could push uptake further into the future. Alternatively, around 2014, developed of a commercial crew transfer vehicle could lead to an increasing launch rate. Figure 21 provides a representation of OFAS launch history and forecast demand.

Uncertainty in OFAS Demand

Given the developmental nature of demand for OFAS launch services, the 2010 forecast excludes specific sources of launch demand from the quantitative forecast until sufficient technological, financial, or political uncertainty is resolved.

• Launch demand generated by Bigelow Aerospace and Excalibur Almaz are discussed within the text but excluded from quantitative forecast.
• OFAS demand from the NASA COTS and NASA CRS contracts are included within the text and quantitative forecast.

Bigelow Sundancer 1 and 2 Space Stations (2014, 2016)

These new stations could create significant additional demand for commercial launches: in excess of 150 launches through 2020 according to company projections.

Excalibur Almaz Space Stations (2012-13)

If EA’s plans come to fruition on its current schedule, it could create additional demand for commercial launches: in excess of 10 launches through 2020. EA launch demand is not currently represented within the forecast model.

Editor’s Note: The figures in the chart would be higher if NASA develops a commercial crew option. It’s also clear from the numbers that although running cargo and crew to ISS could be good business for companies, commercial facilities like Bigelow would be stupendous.

The only thing Bigelow lacks on the technological side is a ride to orbit. The same is true for NASA. Develop launch systems and capsules to serve both customers, and BAM! You open up space like never before. And with NASA no longer worried about just getting into LEO, we’re free to go anywhere we want.

This is really, at its core, what NASA’s new policy is all about. Imagine adding a couple of dozen commercial flights to the above graph as 2020 approaches. The bars would reach to nearly 30 instead of being below 5.