Air Force Wrestles With EELV Launch Costs as NASA Weighs Options

NASA’s decision to cancel the Constellation program and to focus on commercial rockets for crew transport has raised questions about the availability of United Launch Alliance’s product line, which includes Delta IV and Atlas V. In theory, both of these EELVs could be modified for crew use; however, the impact on the U.S. military, which is heavily dependent on these vehicles, requires careful consideration. There are complex issues of production capacity, launch schedules and rates, and costs for the Air Force, NASA and the contractors involved.

It’s a complex issue because ULA would profit from building additional rockets and unit prices could be lowered, if major changes are not required for the NASA human-rated boosters. However, the cancellation of Constellation would impact Pratt & Whitney, which was to build components for Constellation’s Ares rockets. These companies would have higher fixed costs to continue to supply engines for the EELVs without being able to ameliorate them with Constellation work . Of course, some of those problems would be resolved if NASA goes with EELVs for crew transport.

On top of these issues, the Air Force is trying to better manage the launch manifest that it has and to make sure payloads are available. Spaceflight Now has an article that deals with these efforts. The article quotes Gary Payton, the undersecretary of the Air Force for space, and includes some interesting information on costs and touches a bit on some of the potential consequences of a shift:

Payton said Atlas 5 and Delta 4 rockets now go for between $120 million and about $165 million per flight, depending on the configuration needed….But officials are concerned costs could be forced higher because the EELV flight rate is too low to adequately address fixed costs at critical suppliers, including Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, the builder of the RS-68 and RL10 hydrogen-fueled engines.

Pratt & Whitney manufactures the Space Shuttle Main Engine and was expected to build the J-2X engines to power the second stage of the Ares 1 rocket, which was canceled with NASA’s Constellation program under the White House budget request Feb. 1.

Testifying March 10 before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Payton said EELV propulsion system costs could double. During the hearing, Payton highlighted effects of the Constellation program’s termination on Air Force launch costs.

But Payton said the roots of the problem can be traced long before Feb. 1, and the military started working to address the issue last summer.

So, it’s a complicated issue. Much will depend upon whether Constellation is actually canceled, and what NASA decides to replace it with. It could go with existing EELVs, throw its lot in with newer rockets like the Falcon 9 and Taurus II, or pick some combination of the two options. In addition, Bigelow Aerospace is interested in procuring Atlas Vs for its private space station, which is set to begin launches in 2014.

Regardless of which way this goes, there will be a lot of issues to deal with in terms of costs, schedules and maintaining the supplier base.