Mixed Signals From China on Militarization of Space

Over the last week, there have been some decidedly mixed signals on the future of military operations in space. On Monday, there was this blast out of China to mark the 60th anniversary of that nation’s air force:

A top China air force commander has called the militarisation of space an “historical inevitability”, state media said Monday, marking an apparent shift in Beijing’s opposition to weaponising outer space.

In a wide-ranging interview in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily, air force commander Xu Qiliang said it was imperative for the PLA air force to develop offensive and defensive operations in outer space.

“As far as the revolution in military affairs is concerned, the competition between military forces is moving towards outer space… this is a historical inevitability and a development that cannot be turned back,” Xu told the paper.

“We must build an outer space force that conforms with the needs of our nation’s development (and) the demands of the development of the space age.”

That doesn’t sound good. But, hold on. There was also this little-noticed news out of the United Nations last week about a Chinese-supported effort to demilitarize space:

The unanimous support of a Russian draft proposal on confidence-building measures in outer space will pave the way for talks on an agreement on the demilitarization of space, a Russian diplomat said.

The draft resolution on Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures in Outer Space, submitted by Russia and China, was approved late on Thursday by all 192 members of the UN First Committee (Disarmament and International Security).

“The unanimous support of this resolution indicates that the conditions have been created to use this treaty as a basis for opening talks in the near future on a legally-binding agreement banning the deployment of weapons in outer space,” said Viktor Vasilyev, a deputy head of the Russian delegation in the First Committee.

Mixed signals, indeed. The comments come as American officials are trying to both better understand Chinese intentions and to damp down military competition in space:

The leader of the U.S. Strategic Command hopes a recent tour he gave of Bellevue’s Offutt Air Force Base will lead to decreased American-Chinese competition in space.

Gen. Kevin Chilton gave that tour last week to Gen. Xu Caihou, China’s second-highest ranking uniformed officer, explaining StratCom’s role and showing his guest around the base near Bellevue.

Chilton, speaking at Tuesday’s space conference held at the Qwest Center Omaha, said he hopes the visit proves to be the beginning of friendly talks between the United States and China — talks that could shed light on Chinese intentions as they beef up their space-based satellite and weaponry programs.

“We’re looking for opportunities to begin follow-up dialogue,” Chilton said. “I don’t think either country … is interested in a future arms race.”

The efforts come amidst a major Chinese military buildup and major advances in the nation’s space program.

Chinese leaders have publicly stated their intent to build an orbiting station and go to the moon. More bothersome to American military officials, China demonstrated its ability to fire weapons deep into space in 2007 when it shot down one of its own weather satellites.

“I think anyone who is familiar with this business … would be absolutely amazed at the advancement that China has made in such a short period of time,” Chilton said Tuesday. “They have rapidly advanced over the last 10 years.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. is attempting to refocus its military space surveillance efforts to meet the new challenge posed by China’s increasingly sophisticated space efforts.

Chilton, who met with senior Chinese military leaders last week, described strains on the Pentagon’s space program that are forcing commanders to push satellites and other equipment beyond their designed life span and to press for schedules that allow no room for launch failures.

A big challenge, said Chilton, is that the U.S. is working with old satellites that were deployed during the Cold War. Many of those units focus largely on the Northern Hemisphere.

“We have shortfalls in the Southern Hemisphere,” said Lt. Gen. Larry James, commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Space. “As you look at launches that would potentially come out of Asia and head south, you don’t get a look at those for some period of time due to the lack of coverage there. So we still have shortcomings we need to deal with.”

Chilton and James, who spoke to reporters at the close of Strategic Command’s space symposium this week, said improvements to U.S. programs and technologies are planned, but there is still a need for more money.

We’ll see how this goes.