Did Augustine Commission Embrace the Commercial Sector Too Soon?

Peter J. Brown compares the divergent approaches in space being pursued by America and China in an article titled, “China Struggles for Space Entrepreneurs.” The former has an emerging commercial sector, while the latter is a state-run operation dominated by the military:

China and the US differ greatly in terms of workforce mobility and choices. The US space commerce sector is recruiting talented and skilled personnel, whereas China offers no such opportunities outside its government-supported space sector. Granted, the combination of relatively small companies, tough economic times and the highly specialized nature of the work involved means that choices in the US may be limited, but these opportunities exist….

So, the massive job losses and the decay of the nation’s technological base as the space shuttle program winds down could be significantly lessened if the private sector grows apace. But will it? Brown notes that there is an undercurrent of concern about the Augustine Commission’s embrace of the private sector, which may not be mature enough to handle the load:

The decision by the Review Committee to elevate the status of the US space commerce ventures comes at a time when many critics say that the private space sector’s capabilities are largely inflated and unproven.

Gaining experience quickly and becoming more widely accepted is one thing, but flying safely and performing routine missions successfully – and reliably – is another thing entirely.

Critics are uncomfortable and even irritated by the way in which NASA is once being driven to saddle up with this new generation of privately-developed space vehicles – quite prematurely in their eyes. Saying that things will fall into place over the next decade is a sheer exercise in unbridled optimism, critics say.

It’s an interesting point. We will begin to have answers on this point when SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corporation begin testing their Falcon 9 and Taurus II rockets, both of which were developed with seed money from NASA. If these companies develop reliable rockets and freighters for delivering supplies to the International Space Station, this will bode well for developing more advanced human transports.

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